The hypothesis of an energy deficit scenario caused by the scarcity of rain and low reservoirs, mapped by the end of the year by the ONS, motivated the Electric Sector Monitoring Committee (CMSE) to authorize all available energy generation resources.
This is the worst rainfall in the historical series in the last 90 years in the wet season. The sequence from September to April was the worst in history, since 1931. The ONS showed in the PMO that, under current flow conditions, even if it rains the average of recent years, the Southeastern ENA would be well below the historical average. In other words, it would have to rain well above the average for the ENA to return to the historical average.
The decision defines that ONS will be able to use all the thermal capacity available in the country to guarantee the energy supply, even if, for this, it dispatches a large number of thermoelectric plants, including the most expensive, outside the order of merit, that is, regardless of the rainfall levels and prices.
Increase in the total cost of generation
According to Eduardo Faria, from Mercurio Trading, even in a scenario projected as more pessimistic, the simulation does not show a risk of power outages and the operating marginal cost does not reach the cost of the deficit, which would mean the indication of a power cut. However, there is a high probability of an increase in the total cost of generation due to the increase in dispatch with thermal plants, either on merit or not (due to the Energy Guarantee criterion), which will result in an increase in the tariff for the final consumer. “It is essential that the system operator does not end the dry period already counting on a good wet period, because if unfavorable inflows occur again in the next wet period, we will have greater risks of lack of supply.”
It is a decision problem under uncertainty. In a scenario of high use of thermals followed by a great wet period, there is the burden of high costs. On the other hand, the scenario of non-activation of the thermal plants followed by an unfavorable wet period can lead to more serious problems of supply and even greater regret. Models are used to assist the ONS in this decision-making, but their results must always be critically analyzed.
The CMSE also guarantees speeding up the release of new transmission lines to ensure the flow or relocation of cargo between regions; guarantee fuel to supply the thermal plants; postpone the maintenance of plants and import energy from countries like Uruguay and Argentina.
Even with the low possibility of energy deficit, today, there is no defined criterion for the enactment of rationing. Another feature that has not been discarded is the consumption rationalization campaigns with incentives to save energy.